It is anticipated that the Indian market for chemical commodity products will expand by around 7% in 2023 and 8% in 2024
According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, the world’s demand for crude oil is predicted to peak in 2030 at 112 million barrels per day (bpd), with significant contributions from India and Africa. Pulkit Agarwal, Head of India Content at S&P Global Commodity Insights, stated that at present, the global demand for crude oil is at 103 million bpd.
Oil Prices Expected to Remain Above USD 80 Per Barrel
At S&P Global Commodity Insights: Media Roundtable Outlook 2024, Agarwal also commented that the world’s demand for crude oil will increase in 2030 and remain in the region of 112 million barrels per day, after now standing at 103 million barrels per day.
Moreover, he also said that when industrial activity picks up in the region, India and Africa will account for the majority of the 8.73 percent growth in demand by 2030. More people would be using clean cooking methods, automobiles, and refineries established by different economies.
The demand for crude oil in India will also reach its peak during 2040. Its value is anticipated to increase from the present 5.2 million barrels per day to 7.2 million barrels per day. Regarding the price forecast, Agarwal stated, “By Q3 2024, oil prices could approach USD 90 per barrel, but in our base scenario, they will probably remain above USD 80 per barrel.”
Enhancing Policy Support
Executive Director of Energy Transitions & CleanTech Consulting, S&P Global Commodity Insights, Gauri Jauhar, stated that as India expands, it will likewise undergo a sustainable change driven by urbanisation, mobility, and a need for dependability.
In order to minimise emissions, a technical shift toward cleaner technologies is inevitable as part of an energy transition. These technologies provide a variety of short-term, medium-term, and long-term alternatives. Gauri stated that in order for these cleaner technologies to become widely used, they would require financial and political backing both internationally and domestically in India.
Given its robust industrial production and solid economic growth, India is predicted to continue to be a bright spot for petrochemical demand in Asia in 2024, according to Stuti Chawla, Associate Director, India/Middle East Chemicals Pricing, S&P Global Commodity Insights.
However, increased demand is unlikely to provide much relief to local producers facing margin pressure because prices of essential bulk chemicals are anticipated to stay low due to plentiful supply and the addition of new capacity.
Expansion of the Chemical Commodity Market
It is anticipated that the Indian market for chemical commodity products will expand by around 7% in 2023 and 8% in 2024. The strong acceleration of demand growth in India is a result of the country’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 lockdowns.
What Lies Ahead in the Global Crude Oil Market
Last year, the global demand for crude oil (including biofuels) was around 99.57 million barrels per day. In 2023, it increased to 101.89 million barrels per day. Overall, the outlook for the global crude oil market is positive, with India and Africa playing a pivotal role in driving demand. However, India will need to address its reliance on fossil fuels by investing in cleaner technologies.