The AUKUS partnership is a three-way security partnership between Australia, the UK, and the US that involves the sale of nuclear-powered submarines to Canberra.
The future of Quad seems to be secure according to Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong who said that the invitation extended to India, Australia, and Japan to attend newly elected US President Donald Trump’s inauguration shows an ‘iron-clad commitment’ to the Quad Summit.
Quad is an international cooperative partnership between the US, Australia, Japan, and India, which was formed to counter growing Chinese hegemony in the Indo-Pacific (IPAC). Wong also said that the invitation to the foreign ministers is a signal of commitment which stresses the importance of much-needed cooperation in the IPAC region.
Reuters also reported that certain undisclosed sources confirmed that Republican Senator Marco Rubio is most likely to be appointed as Trump’s Secretary of State on Monday. This would allow for a meeting of the Quad foreign ministers the following day.
Wong has stated that she would be meeting Senator Rubio and other members of Trump’s administration, emphasizing the need for a US alliance to secure Australia’s defence and economic stability. She is also expected to discuss the future of the AUKUS stating that Australia was “on a pathway of increasing defence expenditure.” The AUKUS partnership is a three-way security partnership between Australia, the UK, and the US that involves the sale of nuclear-powered submarines to Canberra over a multi-decade period. Wong explained that Australia is focused on delivering on AUKUS as a country’s nuclear capabilities are necessary for deterrence through which peace can be secured in the long run.
Australia has been actively pushing for the deliveries of AUKUS, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese saying in September 2024 that he was confident that as the US was the country’s closest security ally, any administration would support the defence pack. While this sentiment was expressed by PM Albanese after a meeting with then-President Biden, Australia is confident of continued support from Washington. Formed in 2021, the main objective of the AUKUS partnership was to counter China’s growing power in the region and equip Australia with nuclear-powered submarines, hypersonic missiles, and other advanced weapons.
Last week Australia’s Defence Minister Richard Marles said in a radio interview that through AUKUS, the US industrial base would receive a significant push from Australia to speed up production. There were concerns that due to budgetary concerns, the transfer of these Virginia-class submarines to Australia would be delayed, as production in American shipyards would hit a pause. However, Marles has clarified that “AUKUS is happening, and it is on course” further adding that the ‘Land Down Under’ had already taken into account any possible delays and other challenges.
Marles commented that this $368 billion trilateral security partnership is in the strategic interest of all the three countries involved. With Trump back in office, Marles said that Australia is confident about the progress of AUKUS over the next four years, as bilateral ties between the US and Australia is the cornerstone of Canberra’s foreign policy and national security.
The recent comments from Marles and Wong, and a meeting of the Quad countries’ foreign ministers immediately after the Trump inauguration are bound to send a strong message to other democracies in the IPAC region that such a grouping is an alternative to China’s hegemony.
While the Australian government is putting on a brave front and maintaining optimism, political commentators and experts are not so convinced. Having seen Trump’s stubbornness in getting European countries to increase their spending on NATO during his first term, it is unlikely he will be satisfied with Australia spending a meager 2% of its GDP on the AUKUS deals. While Albanese has promised to increase spending to 2.3% over the next ten years, it is unlikely that Trump would be satisfied with this figure.
While Australia might face certain budgetary concerns over the execution of the grand AUKUS plan, it is unlikely that Washington under Trump would walk away from this deal, as it aligns with the Republican’s overarching goal of standing up to Beijing and its growing influence across Asia and the rest of the world.
