The EU has committed to spending $250 billion annually for three years on US energy imports, including nuclear, liquefied natural gas, and oil.
The EU has managed to avoid a full-blown trade war with US President Donald Trump by promising to buy $750 billion worth of US gas and oil by the end of his term.
However, it would be a challenge to accomplish as it would require rerouting most of the US energy exports to Europe, and the EU would have limited control over the energy its companies import.
The US and EU have signed a trade agreement where the US will impose 15% tariffs on most EU goods. The EU has committed to spending $250 billion annually for three years on US energy imports, including nuclear, liquefied natural gas, and oil.
The US Energy Information Administration reports that energy exported by the United States worldwide in 2024 was $318 billion. The EU imported $76 billion of US fuels like coal, LNG, and petroleum. Analysts claim that tripling those imports would be unrealistic.
Arturo Regalado, senior LNG analyst at Kpler, stated that US oil flows would need to be redirected towards the EU to meet the goal, or the value of LNG imports from the US would have to double.
There is fierce competition for American energy exports, and many have promised to buy additionally during the trade agreement.
For example, Japan has agreed to a significant expansion of US energy exports, and South Korea has expressed interest in investing and buying fuel from an Alaskan LNG project, a US project.
Competition for US energy would increase its prices and encourage United States producers to favour exports over domestic supply. That would increase fuel and power costs, which would be a political and financial headache for the US and EU leaders.
The EU estimated that, by 2050, the expansion of nuclear energy in its member states would cost billions of euros. However, trade data reports that nuclear reactor-related imports were 53.3 billion euros in 2024.
A senior EU official stated that it would depend on investments in US oil and LNG infrastructure, European import infrastructure, and shipping capacity, adding that the energy pledge showed the EU’s analysis of how much United States energy supply it could accommodate.
Some sources say that there was no public commitment to fulfil because the EU would not buy the energy; instead, its businesses would.
Private companies import most of Europe’s oil, while a combination of private and state-run companies import gas. The European Commission can combine demand for LNG to negotiate better terms, but it can’t compel companies to buy gas.
Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS) experts Andreas Schröder and Ajay Parmar stated that it is not feasible. They argue that Europe will take more LNG than it can handle, or it will pay an extremely high non-market price for US LNG.
According to EU data, the US supplied 15.4% of the EU’s oil and 44% of its LNG needs in 2024, making it the EU’s top supplier of both commodities.
Jacob Mandel, research head at Aurora Energy Research, stated that increasing imports to the target requires US LNG expansion more than planned through 2030.
He added that $250 billion would not be possible to reach the goal. He stated that Europe would buy an additional $50 billion of US LNG annually as supply grows.
As it plans to stop importing Russian gas and oil by 2028, the EU will import additional energy from the United States.
EU data reports that the bloc purchased 52 billion cubic meters (bcm) of Russian LNG and gas last year, along with almost 94 million barrels of Russian oil, which is 3% of its total crude purchases. For comparison, the EU imported US LNG worth 45 billion cubic meters the previous year.
However, analysts noted that higher EU fuel purchases would run counter to the EU’s predictions that its consumption would decline as it shifts to clean energy.
