OPEC+ Holds November Oil Targets Steady as War Keeps Supply Tight

OPEC+ has agreed to stick to its oil output targets in November, adopting a conservative stance in light of the ongoing Iran war and crude supply disruptions.

The decision was made on Sunday by the alliance of seven countries,  Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman.

OPEC+ was widely expected not to change November’s output targets. This decision suggests OPEC+ is unlikely to make further adjustments to the production plan before 2027 amid ongoing uncertainty about the conflict.

Actual supply remains below official targets

However, the headline decision glosses over a deeper disparity between the OPEC+ production objectives and actual barrels that come to the market.

OPEC+ producers from the Gulf region have failed to achieve their production objectives due to the disruption in exports amid the conflict. The level of exports has remained unstable within the range of 60%-80% of the usual export rate in recent months.

It serves to balance out some excess supply that was supposed to be brought back by OPEC+.

“The OPEC+ group of seven kept their production ceilings unchanged, in line with market expectations. That said, despite rising flows through the Strait of Hormuz, their output levels remain well below quota,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

“Consequently, the oil market remains tight.”

The distinction between quotas and actual production is becoming increasingly important. OPEC+ may have increased its formal targets, but disrupted exports mean the global market has not received the full volume implied by those decisions.

Core producers remain below pre-war output

Supply disruption figures can be gauged from OPEC’s data.

The seven main OPEC members produced an average of 25 million barrels per day in August. This was approximately 630,000 bpd more than in July.

However, their total production has stayed some 5 million barrels per day below February numbers, prior to the Iran war.

Additionally, there is a production reduction of about 2 million bpd among almost all the member countries.

Therefore, the November decision should not be seen as any new restriction policy but as maintaining the previous one amid geopolitical constraints on supply.

Brent remains above $100

Prices for crude have stayed volatile due to any developments in the dispute and the movement of crude oil via the vital export routes.

However, Brent crude is still above $100 a barrel, despite the price falling on Friday after European leaders decided to release supplies of diesel following an appeal by President Donald Trump of the United States.

The price of the benchmark stood at $73 a barrel before the outbreak of war with Iran towards the end of February.

This rise clearly shows how much of the geopolitical factor has been priced in to crude prices.

2026 output increases have largely stayed on paper

OPEC+ has spent much of 2026 reversing earlier production cuts.

However, the conflict has limited the impact of those increases. The group has been able to announce higher production targets without the same volume necessarily reaching international buyers.

This situation is quite different from most of 2025, when OPEC+ was busy adding back barrels that were previously taken out of the market in previous waves of coordinated cuts.

By the end of 2025, OPEC+ had already started to reduce the rate of additions, due to worries about an oversupply situation emerging. The policy problem has changed now.

Instead of managing a possible surplus, OPEC+ is dealing with disrupted physical supply and uncertainty over how much oil producers can actually deliver.

Capacity review delayed by conflict

The next major policy question concerns OPEC+'s production-capacity review.

The review is important because it will help determine members' production quotas for 2027. However, the Iran war has made estimates of future production capacity more uncertain.

The review has therefore been delayed.

That delay also reduces the likelihood of major changes to individual output allocations before next year. OPEC+ will need clearer information on production capacity, export infrastructure, and regional supply conditions before deciding how to distribute future increases.

November meeting will be closely watched

The seven core members are scheduled to hold another meeting on November 1.

The next meeting may indicate clearly what OPEC+ plans for its production policy in December and beyond 2027.

At present, however, OPEC+ has decided on stability.

But the main problem of the oil market does not lie in the declared figures of production allowed to producers by OPEC+; rather, it lies in the number of barrels that actually get delivered to consumers.

Brent is still above $100, and with the war in Iran affecting exports, this gap will stay at the center of the oil market in the last months of 2026.